Trade & Tariff Update: What Changed Overnight, and What to Do Now

There's been a lot of movement on cross-border tariffs over the past two weeks, and the situation escalated again just last night. Here's a clear picture of where things stand, what support is available, and what we're still waiting on.

What's in Effect and What's Coming

U.S. tariffs of 50 per cent on a range of Canadian goods took effect August 22. Canada's counter-tariffs took effect Tuesday, September 8, applying 15, 25, and 50 per cent rates to approximately $27.6 billion in U.S. imports, with a focus on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. More than 700 product lines are covered, and the list is published at the tariff-item level by CBSA. Steel and aluminum tariffs doubled from 25 to 50 per cent, and the highest rate also caught furniture, clothing, and some beauty products.

Late Tuesday night, President Trump signed five proclamations that go further than tariffs: they ban a range of Canadian goods from entering the U.S. outright, replacing the existing 50 per cent duties on those products with a straight exclusion. The bans cover most Canadian alcoholic beverages, whey and molasses products, and motorcycles or mopeds with engines over 800cc, and take effect September 29 at 12:01 a.m. ET. Separately, the U.S. is adding all-terrain vehicles and animal hides to its 50 per cent tariff list (removing rock salt and cement from it) effective September 15, and has announced new 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian vehicles and auto parts effective January 1, 2027. The administration has also floated excluding Canadian companies from U.S. government procurement.

Two details matter for anything moving through the border right now. Goods already in transit to Canada when the counter-tariffs took effect are not subject to them, and the counter-tariffs apply only to goods that qualify as U.S.-origin under Canada's marking rules. CBSA's detailed administrative guidance on the new measures wasn't published until right before the effective date, so if classification and origin determination hasn't been checked against the final list, that's worth doing now. BDC's Canada Tariff Finder is a useful tool for that.

Washington has signaled the door isn't fully closed. U.S. and Canadian trade officials are reportedly still discussing an "alternative pathway" before the September 29 bans take hold, but the tone on both sides has hardened considerably.

Support That's Already Available

This is the part worth flagging most urgently, because one window is already open.

Manitoba announced more than $100 million in supports on August 28. Among them:

A deferral of provincially administered tax payments, including retail sales tax and payroll tax, covering September 1 through December 31, 2026, for businesses harmed by trade tariffs
The Manitoba Trade Resilience Loan Program, offering repayable low-interest working capital of up to $1 million with flexible repayment terms
$13.7 million for a Tariff Workforce Stabilization and Youth Employment Program providing wage subsidies to employers
An increase to the MASC Diversification Loan Guarantee Program, raising the maximum from $1.5 million to $5 million
$500,000 to support interprovincial trade missions for Manitoba alcohol producers and craft breweries

Federally, a $7.5 billion package was announced alongside the counter-tariffs. It breaks down into:

$1.5 billion in additional funding through the Regional Tariff Response Initiative for tariff-affected small and medium businesses
A $2 billion Canada Strong Diversification Fund
$500 million in new BDC liquidity support
$3.5 billion in Rapid Response Supports for Workers and Employers
New flexibilities under the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility, which is currently accepting applications

Canada's Duties Relief and Drawback programs, along with its tariff remission framework, also remain available for businesses seeking relief in exceptional circumstances. Regionally, PrairiesCan has already begun flowing RTRI money to Manitoba manufacturers — 15 Winnipeg projects received a combined $15.9 million earlier this month.

This May Reach Further Than You'd Expect

The businesses most obviously affected are those importing from or exporting to the U.S. directly. That's especially true now for anyone in alcohol, dairy, motorcycles, autos, or auto parts, given last night's news. The product lists and program details above are worth going through carefully.

But the effects travel. A business can be affected without importing anything itself if:

Its suppliers import, and their costs are about to move through to pricing
Its customers are directly affected, and their spending or order volumes shift
It holds fixed-price contracts or quotes that assumed pre-tariff input costs
It carries inventory bought at one cost that now competes against goods priced at another
It's in construction, transport, wholesale, or manufacturing, where materials and freight tend to reprice quickly

This second group often gets missed, because the impact shows up a quarter later in margins rather than immediately on an invoice. It's worth getting ahead of.

One note in fairness: several of the relief programs are aimed at businesses that can demonstrate direct impact, so indirect exposure may not qualify for loans or subsidies at this time. The planning work still matters — knowing where margins are heading is useful whether or not there's a program attached to it.

What We Expect to Change

Programs announced this quickly usually get refined. Eligibility criteria get clarified, application processes open in stages, and additional measures get added as the impact on specific sectors becomes clearer. With Washington's export bans still three weeks out and talks reportedly ongoing, there's a real chance the situation shifts again before September 29, in either direction. We'll be following this closely and will publish further updates as things firm up — this is one of several, not a one-off.

How We Can Help

Working out where tariff costs are actually landing in a business, and how much
Updating cash flow projections against realistic scenarios
Assessing whether the tax deferral makes sense, and handling the mechanics
Reviewing pricing, margins, and supplier arrangements
Preparing documentation and applications for the loan and wage subsidy programs
Making sure books can support an application without a scramble
Working through future projections with worst- and best-case scenarios

Get in Touch

If your business may be affected, directly or indirectly, reach out. Even a short conversation helps us understand your exposure, which means that when the next set of details lands, we can tell you specifically whether it matters to you rather than sending another general update.

The province has also set up a tariff hotline for businesses and workers, at 204-945-8011 or 1-877-827-4330 toll-free within Manitoba, for anyone who'd like to go direct.

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